EIA Sees US Power Sales Reaching 4,211 Billion kWh in 2027, With PJM Taking 45% of Generation Growth
- Analysis Capacity & Wholesale Markets Policy & Markets
Marin Holt
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- US electricity sales of 4,135 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,211 billion kWh in 2027, with consumption up about 2% each year
- Commercial sector grows 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, accounting for 63% and 56% of the sales increase
- PJM demand accounts for nearly 45% of total US generation growth
- Solar generation grows 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027; wind grows 7% and then 5%
- ERCOT adds 18 billion kWh of solar in 2026 and 20 billion kWh in 2027; MISO adds 13 and 11 billion kWh
The Energy Information Administration released its September Short-Term Energy Outlook on September 9, 2026. The agency expects US electricity sales to total 4,135 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,211 billion kWh in 2027. EIA has US electricity consumption growing 2% in 2026 and another 2% in 2027. The agency ties the growth to data center development and manufacturing in the commercial and industrial sectors. The growth is not spread evenly across the grid, and one market takes almost half of the added generation.
Where the Demand Sits
The commercial sector grows 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. EIA has that sector accounting for 63% and 56% of the increase in electricity sales in those years. The headline figure of 2% growth reads as routine. The composition does not, because nearly two thirds of this year’s national increase traces back to one class of customer. EIA also notes that the West South Central region takes the largest share of total sales growth, even with a pause on connecting new data center projects in Texas.
Where the Generation Sits
PJM demand accounts for nearly 45% of total US generation growth. EIA expects solar generation to grow 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, with wind up 7% and then 5%. Natural gas generation grows 2% this year and 1% next year. Coal generation falls 8% and then 6%. The solar growth concentrates in two markets. ERCOT adds 18 billion kWh of solar generation in 2026 and another 20 billion kWh in 2027. MISO adds 13 billion kWh and then 11 billion kWh.
The Gap
A national forecast hides where the iron has to go. If PJM demand carries 45% of generation growth, then the interconnection queues, transmission upgrades and capacity auctions that matter are concentrated in one footprint rather than spread across seven. Two of the three growth stories also point at different maps. Solar builds in ERCOT and MISO, while the generation growth concentrates in PJM, and EIA credits gas for driving the PJM increase in 2026. The outlook also stops at 2027, inside the window where announced data center load is contracted but not yet energized.
Why It Matters
Consumption growth of 2% a year is the number that appears in rate cases and resource plans. It is also the number that makes a load surge look manageable. The sector split is the more useful signal for anyone planning a substation or bidding into a capacity auction. Commercial load supplies nearly two thirds of this year’s increase, so the marginal customer on much of the system is a building full of servers rather than a household.
Critical Perspective
The Short-Term Energy Outlook moves, and it moves on the series this forecast rests on. EIA cut its 2026 power generation growth forecast by more than a percentage point earlier this year, so a 2% consumption path is a current estimate rather than a settled one. The agency also finalized its model inputs on September 3 and says the forecast does not account for market events after that date. The commercial-sector share carries its own caveat. EIA books data centers under the commercial and industrial sectors, so a 63% contribution describes a reporting category rather than a metered count of server halls. The regional split deserves the same care. A projection that PJM demand supplies 45% of generation growth assumes the projects behind it clear interconnection on schedule, and PJM’s own queue history argues against reading that as a delivery date. Coal falling 8% in one year also sits awkwardly beside federal efforts to keep specific coal units running, which have already drawn a court reversal this year.
