Duke Energy Florida Puts 74.9 MW Bailey Mill Solar in Service, Cuts 2033 Solar Projection to 5,500 MW From 6,100 MW
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Marin Holt
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- 7 minutes read
- Capacity: 74.9 MW
- In service (PSC certificate): Sept. 11, 2026
- Lifetime fuel savings (Duke estimate): $250 million
- 2033 utility-scale solar projection: Over 5,500 MW (2025: over 6,100 MW)
Duke Energy Florida has finished the 74.9 MW Bailey Mill Solar Center near Monticello in Jefferson County, Florida. The utility announced the plant on Oct. 16. A certificate Duke filed with the Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) deems the plant in service on Sept. 11, 2026. The site has 163,000 panels. Duke says it will save customers $250 million in fuel costs over its service lifetime.
Duke recovers the plant through a solar base rate adjustment (SoBRA). The PSC approved the Bailey Mill SoBRA in an order issued June 18, 2025. In May 2026, PSC staff wrote that Duke expected the plant to operate in August 2026, with the SoBRA effective in September 2026. A $338,970 annual tax reform adjustment rides in the same Bailey Mill SoBRA from Sept. 1, 2026. Staff put that tax piece at $0.01 a month on a 1,000 kilowatt-hour residential bill.
What Changed Since the 2025 Filing
Duke filed the plan in February 2025. It then said it was investing over $521 million in four solar sites, with Bailey Mill among them. It expected the four sites to save customers $843 million over their lifetimes. Bailey Mill was still in permitting, with construction planned for summer 2025 and service by summer 2026. The construction contract with Overland Contracting, Inc. is dated Aug. 29, 2025.
Two numbers moved between the releases. In 2025, Duke said each 74.9 MW site would power about 23,000 homes. The 2026 release says Bailey Mill powers about 15,000 homes. In 2025, Duke projected over 6,100 MW of utility-scale solar by the end of 2033. The 2026 release projects over 5,500 MW by the same date. Neither release explains the change.
The build plan changed shape too. In 2025, Duke planned 12 new sites adding 900 MW between 2025 and 2027. The 2026 release says five sites are complete since 2025, and 11 more will follow before the end of 2028. The fleet today is over 25 solar sites with about 1,850 MW.
What the Release Does Not Say
Duke gives no cost for Bailey Mill alone. The $521 million covers four sites. The PSC records MGRID reviewed do not state the plant’s own revenue requirement or the full SoBRA bill impact. The release also does not say why the homes figure fell for a site of the same 74.9 MW size.
Why It Matters
Bailey Mill reached service a few weeks after the August 2026 date in the PSC record. That is close to plan for a site that was still in permitting in early 2025. The larger signal is the 2033 projection. Duke now projects over 5,500 MW of utility-scale solar by then, against over 6,100 MW in its 2025 release. The release gives no reason for the lower figure.
Critical Perspective
Duke now claims $250 million in lifetime fuel savings for the 74.9 MW Bailey Mill site alone. In 2025, it put the savings for all four planned sites at $843 million. This one site now claims more than a quarter of that total. The homes figure for a site this size fell from about 23,000 to about 15,000, with no reason given. The Florida Public Service Commission approved the cost recovery more than a year before the plant entered service. If each site now powers fewer homes, why should customers expect a larger share of the fuel savings?
Sources
- Duke Energy: Duke Energy Florida launches new solar site in Jefferson County (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Florida PSC Docket 20250034-EI: Placed in Service Certificate for Bailey Mill (filed Sept. 15, 2026)
- Florida PSC staff recommendation, Docket 20260044-EI (May 20, 2026)
- Duke Energy: Duke Energy Florida files plans for four new solar energy sites (Feb. 21, 2025)
- Solar Power World: Duke Energy Florida completes 75-MW Bailey Mill solar site (Oct. 19, 2026)
