BloombergNEF Lifts Its US Storage Outlook 30% to 213.9 GW by 2030, With Data Centers Taking 4.9 GW On Site This Year
- Analysis Energy Storage Storage Markets & Tariffs
Marin Holt
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- US cumulative storage: 213.9 GW by 2030, 434.4 GW by 2036
- Forecast change: 30% more over 10 years than six months ago
- Data center on-site storage: 4.9 GW/7.4 GWh in 2026, up from 500 MW/1.4 GWh
- Duty on Chinese storage batteries: 40.9%
- US price outlook (Intertek CEA): 15% to 30% decline by 2030
BloombergNEF now expects the United States to install 30% more energy storage over the next 10 years than it forecast six months ago. Its second-half 2026 Energy Storage Market Outlook puts cumulative US deployments at 213.9 GW by 2030 and 434.4 GW by 2036, senior analyst Isshu Kikuma told Utility Dive. BNEF raised the number despite trade barriers and project cost inflation. It named colocated storage with renewables and data center demand as the near-term drivers.
Data Centers Enter the Forecast
The outlook breaks out on-site data center storage. BNEF expects 4.9 GW/7.4 GWh of it in the US this year, up from 500 MW/1.4 GWh in 2025. It sees 6.3 GW/8.4GWh in 2027 and cumulative data center storage of 36 GW/66 GWh in 2036. Most of that sits on the grids run by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, PJM and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator.
BNEF also made a regional call. It said data centers in PJM are more likely to use energy storage for load shifting than behind-the-meter gas, because emission limits on power plants are tighter in that region. Long-duration projects backed by data center owners, such as a proposed 300 MW/30 GWh iron-air battery in Minnesota, are still too early to include in deployment forecasts, BNEF said.
Tax Credits, Tariffs and Chemistry
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act extended storage tax credit eligibility through 2035 while solar eligibility ends sooner. BNEF said that law supports a pipeline of 83.7 GW/166.1 GWh of storage paired with 149.2 GW of solar. Some 4 GW of storage was colocated with solar in the US in the first nine months of 2026.
Trade policy pushes the other way. BNEF puts the combined duty on stationary storage batteries imported from mainland China at 40.9%. It also cited import restrictions on foreign-made power conversion systems. Lithium iron phosphate stays the dominant chemistry, but BNEF expects sodium-ion to reach 9% penetration by 2036.
The global picture moved too. BNEF now expects 188GW/535GWh of deployments worldwide in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of 158GW/459GWh, Energy-Storage.news reported. TaiyangNews reported a forecast of 209 GW/638 GWh in 2027, with China, the US and Australia expected to account for 62% of global additions in 2026. BNEF sees global deployments reaching 3,098 GW/11,106 GWh in 2036.
What US Buyers Pay
A separate forecast shows why US projects stay expensive. Intertek CEA’s ESS Price Forecasting Report (Q3 2026) projects US DC block prices to decline roughly 15% to 30% by 2030, ESS News reported. Import markets are poised to capture steeper reductions exceeding 40%. Intertek CEA also said approximately 11% of announced 2026 US production capacity is at risk of slipping into 2027.
Why It Matters
BNEF raised the volume forecast without lowering the cost of entry. Its own report cites a 40.9% duty on Chinese storage batteries, and Intertek CEA expects US prices to fall far less than prices abroad. A larger US market built at higher unit prices favors buyers with deep balance sheets, which is where data centers come in.
The forecast also leans on a new customer class with a short track record. US on-site data center storage was 500 MW in 2025. BNEF expects 4.9 GW this year. That curve depends on campuses reaching construction, and on factories that Intertek CEA says are already at risk of slipping. Utilities in ERCOT, PJM and MISO planning around this outlook should ask how much of the BNEF forecast rests on data center projects still in permitting.
Critical Perspective
BNEF raised its US forecast by 30% in the same report that cites a 40.9% duty on Chinese storage batteries, and Intertek CEA expects US prices to fall only 15% to 30% by 2030 while import markets see more than 40%. The data center line jumps from 500 MW in 2025 to 4.9 GW this year, a customer class with one year of history. Intertek CEA also says about 11% of announced 2026 US factory capacity is at risk of slipping into 2027. The coverage does not say how much of the 213.9 GW rests on campuses that have not started construction. If those campuses slip, or if the duty rises again, which part of the forecast goes first?
Sources
- Utility Dive: BNEF ups US energy storage deployment forecast by 30% (Oct 2026)
- Energy-Storage.news: Global energy storage deployments will see 45% year-on-year ‘growth surge’ in 2026: BloombergNEF (Oct 2026)
- TaiyangNews: Global Energy Storage Additions To Hit 188 GW In 2026 (Oct 26, 2026)
- ESS News / pv magazine USA: US battery storage prices could fall up to 30% by 2030 (Oct 27, 2026)
