Wind PPAs Reach $83.79 a MWh as Solar Slips to $61.40, With 44 GW Stuck Behind a Pentagon Review
- Analysis Capacity & Wholesale Markets Policy & Markets
Marin Holt
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- Land-based wind PPAs averaged $83.79 per MWh in Q2 2026 and solar averaged $61.40, a gap of $22.39 that ACP calls the largest recorded.
- Wind PPA prices rose 5.5% quarter over quarter and 17.5% year over year, while solar fell 4.8% from Q1 but remains 6.7% above last year.
- At least 44 GW of wind projects sit in Department of Defense review, which has issued almost no mitigation agreements since August 2025.
- The clean power pipeline passed 200 GW and grew 11% year over year in the first half of 2026, but the land-based wind slice shrank 4%.
- Utilities contracted 15,048 MW in 2026 so far, 71% of offtake agreements, ahead of the commercial and industrial sector at 3,590 MW.
- A preliminary injunction from Judge Karin Immergut in the District of Oregon reopened the DoD review in August 2026.
Land-based wind power purchase agreements averaged $83.79 per MWh in the second quarter of 2026. Solar averaged $61.40. The American Clean Power Association puts the gap at $22.39 per MWh and calls it “a 36% difference, the largest recorded.” The cause is not weak demand for wind. It is a Department of Defense permitting review that has been close to frozen since August 2025.
The Data
ACP drew the price figures from LevelTen Energy. LevelTen builds that index from prices developers offer on its own marketplace, not from executed contracts. Wind PPA prices rose 5.5% from the first quarter and 17.5% from a year earlier. Solar prices fell 4.8% from the first quarter but still sit 6.7% above last year.
The solar decline is thinner than it looks. LevelTen reports that a steep drop in CAISO accounted for more than half of the continental decrease. CAISO is a small share of total offer volume. Strip CAISO out and the average fall is 1.8%.
Volume tells a different story from price. The United States added close to 5 GW of land-based wind in the second quarter. ACP defines the clean power pipeline as land-based wind, offshore wind, utility-scale solar and battery storage. That pipeline passed 200 GW and grew 11% year over year in the first half. The land-based wind slice of that pipeline shrank 4%.
What It Means
Wind is not losing a price contest. It is losing a permitting queue. LevelTen and pv magazine USA both trace the bottleneck to one instrument. The Department of Defense issues mitigation agreements to settle national security effects near military airspace and radar. Issuance has been close to halted since August 2025.
John Hensley is ACP senior vice president for markets and policy analysis. He told Utility Dive that at least 44 GW of wind projects sit in that review. He named an August preliminary injunction from Judge Karin Immergut of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon as the first real opening.
A frozen review does not lower prices. It raises them. Buyers who need wind now must bid for the small set of projects that already hold permits. A fully permitted wind asset commands a premium because the pipeline behind it stopped refilling.
The Gap
Two things the report does not settle are worth naming. The first is direction. Hensley expects the wind-solar spread to narrow within months, but he expects it to narrow because solar gets more expensive, not because wind gets cheaper. He tied that to an August 6 executive order that set a 15% duty on imports of polysilicon derivatives. A record spread that closes from the wrong side is not a recovery.
The second is where the power lands. Utilities contracted 15,048 MW in 2026 so far and took 71% of offtake agreements. The commercial and industrial sector took 3,590 MW. Hyperscalers dominate the headlines. Hensley put Google at 54% of corporate PPA announcements in the second quarter. Utilities remain the larger buyer. Getting the contract signed is also not the same as getting the plant connected. Hensley said California and Texas are working well, and added that “PJM remains a major bottleneck.”
Critical Perspective
The price index and the pipeline count are different instruments. The coverage runs them together. LevelTen reports prices that developers offer on its own marketplace. Those are offers, not executed contracts. A record spread between offer prices is not proof of a record spread in what buyers actually paid.
The 44 GW figure comes from Hensley. ACP is the trade association for the industry that number argues for. No independent count of how much wind sits in Department of Defense review appears anywhere in the coverage. The claim may well be right. It is still unaudited.
One quarter is also not a trend. The land-based wind pipeline fell 4% in a half year when the whole clean power pipeline rose 11%. The report does not break out how much of that 4% is cancellation, how much is reclassification, and how much is projects leaving the pipeline on completion.
The injunction carries the most weight and the least detail. A preliminary injunction in August is not a final ruling. Neither ACP nor LevelTen says how much of the 44 GW would clear if the Department of Defense restarted reviews at its old pace. Nobody states what that pace was.
Sources
- Land-based wind power pipeline shrinks as price gap with solar widens (Utility Dive, September 3, 2026)
- 2026 Q2 Clean Power Quarterly Market Report (American Clean Power Association)
- LevelTen North American PPA Price Index, Q2 2026 (LevelTen Energy, July 21, 2026)
- Solar PPA prices dip in Q2 while wind climbs, reports LevelTen (pv magazine USA, July 27, 2026)
