EIA Projects ERCOT Solar Generation to Exceed Coal
- AI Energy Demand Analysis Policy & Markets
Marin Holt
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- ERCOT Solar Generation 2026: 78 billion kWh
- ERCOT Coal Generation 2026: 60 billion kWh
- Texas Share of US Solar Additions: 40 percent (14 billion kWh added)
- Largest 2026 Texas PV Project: Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS, 837 MW
- New Coal in ERCOT Pipeline: Zero — no new coal plants planned
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected on May 13, 2026, that utility-scale solar generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas ([ERCOT](/?p=4408)) will surpass coal-fired generation for the first time on a calendar-year basis, with solar reaching 78 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) versus 60 billion kWh for coal.
The Numbers
According to the EIA’s “Today in Energy” series, drawing on the Short-Term Energy Outlook and the Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (Form EIA-860M), ERCOT is projected to account for approximately 40% of total U.S. utility-scale solar capacity additions in 2026. This translates to an estimated 14 billion kWh of incremental solar generation within Texas. The largest single new solar project slated for ERCOT commercial operation in 2026 is the Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS facility, an 837 megawatt (MW) photovoltaic plant with co-located battery energy storage, identified by EIA as the largest U.S. PV project scheduled for completion this year.
What Is Driving It
This energy crossover occurs as ERCOT’s generator inventory shows zero new coal plant construction plans. Every coal unit retirement further amplifies the growing share of solar generation. Simultaneously, ERCOT’s load profile is undergoing significant shifts. Data center interconnection requests have seen a sharp increase throughout 2025 and into 2026. ERCOT staff have previously warned that Texas peak demand could increase by 50% by 2031 if all queued large-load interconnections materialize.
Why It Matters
The projected shift has implications for ERCOT’s capacity adequacy, particularly concerning evening peak demand periods. Meeting these peaks will continue to depend on a combination of natural gas, nuclear, and battery storage for firming. Despite the projected solar crossover, Texas remains the largest coal generator among ERCOT-connected states, with several large coal units still operating in West and East Texas.
Critical Perspective
It is important to note that this milestone represents an energy (kWh) crossover, not a capacity-firmness or capacity-credit crossover. Solar generation is inherently concentrated in daylight hours. The EIA cautioned that meeting evening peaks will continue to require dispatchable resources such as natural gas, nuclear, and battery storage.
